Bright future in the ‘burbs

This article was first published by MCA on May 1, 2020

Nick Weir, co-managing director, Shelley Sandzer

The Covid-19 lockdown has forced a massive change in working practices for everyone.  Whether we like it or not, we have had to make working from home produce results.  We have all had to make it work.  And with many predicting social distancing measures lasting for 12 months, we are looking at a new way of life for millions of workers across the country.

More than that, it is becoming clear that many prefer it to being in an office.  Gone is the stressful fight for a seat on the train or the attempts to avoid an armpit-in-the-face on the Northern Line.  Instead, we look out of the window during the day now on joggers, walkers and those en route to buying their essentials.

A less obvious upside in working from is the positive impact it is having on local neighbourhoods.  Wind the clock back three months and the average suburban street would have been very quiet by comparison Monday to Friday.  Now, up and down the country, they have become different places and, the longer the lockdown continues, the stronger and more relevant the suburbs will be in the new normal.

And that could be very good news for F&B operators and property investors.

Busy metropolitan suburbs could provide opportunities for both as local coffee shops, bars and restaurants will be in more demand from people working, and living generally, more locally than they have done before.

According to recent data from CACI, Earlsfield in Wandsworth has jumped over 2,000 places in their ranking of the UK’s top retail destinations.  Outside the capital, suburban centres such as Headlingly in Leeds have gone up over 900 places on average.  These almost overnight rises in potential are likely to last as long as much of the high street and offices remain closed. 

The go local focus will bring other benefits for the suburbs too, such as the growth of co-working and co-living outside of city centres.  In London, places such as Clapham, Elephant and Castle, and Stratford are all likely to become much more significant hubs serving a multitude of purposes.  The effect will extend further too, with towns like Harpenden, Cobham and Marlow becoming regional hotspots for a new locally-orientated way of life.

But is there a flipside?  In the immediate to mid-term, many city centres are likely to be affected while social distancing measures are maintained.  Already, many office occupiers are planning to continue with home working, blending it over time with a partial return to the office.  Even those that can manage social distancing in a way that means everyone can get back to their office desk will face restricted passenger numbers on public transport.

A return to the days of packed trains, pubs and restaurants is more than likely a while away for our city centres, albeit cities with a strong tourism offer, such as London’s West End, Liverpool and Edinburgh, will bounce back faster.

So, the need for quality local pubs, delis, coffee shops and restaurants, all places to co-work remotely in a safe, social setting, will be real.  And, for operators, rental values will be more accessible and there will be plenty of staff to deliver a welcoming experience.

When the working week is done, the appeal of the suburbs will not diminish either as the present high demand for good quality delivery options from more diverse operators will continue post-lockdown.   And when the lockdown finally lifts completely, people will in all likelihood want to eat, meet and be merry locally, rather than heading to busier locations.

So, while their remain some very significant challenges ahead, there will also be opportunities.  Our previously sleepy suburbs could just take us back to the future.